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Global power is in flux. Your daily guide to what comes next. By JACK BLANCHARD Welcome to POLITICO Forecast.
This is Jack Blanchard . Drop me a line . 5 THINGS THAT MATTERED TODAY — Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez called a snap general election on Nov. 29. — OpenAI boss Sam Altman told POLITICO Decoded that lavishing AI money on U.S. politics is “clearly not working.” — Health officials are closely monitoring a suspected case of pneumonic plague in eastern Russia following the death of a lab worker. — U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed American bombers were removed from a British airbase due to “threats” from hostile actors. — Far-right populist Flávio Bolsonaro took a commanding lead in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, with a runoff due on Oct. 25.
THE NEXT NEWS CYCLE Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez attends an extraordinary parliamentary session to vote on a government housing decree on Oct. 2, 2026 in Madrid. | Javier Soriano/AFP via Getty Images VOX POPS: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez just took the gamble of a lifetime by calling an early election. He might have opened the door to a return of the Spanish far right. Sanchez announced this morning that Spanish voters will go to the polls on Nov. 29, nine months ahead of the legally-mandated end of the parliament in Aug. 2027.
As Forecast set out yesterday , the socialist PM hopes to capitalize on voter unrest over sky-high housing costs to secure a third term in office. But Sánchez’s bold decision to go early belies a desperately weak political position. His main conservative opponents, the People’s Party, are ahead in the polls and the far-right Vox party is performing well in third place.
“The outcome of this snap election is by no means guaranteed, ” POLITICO Europe’s Aitor Hernández-Morales tells Forecast. “Sánchez hasn’t called it because he thinks he might necessarily win. He’s called it because he thinks these are going to be the most favorable circumstances for him...
But the odds are very much against him.” The most likely outcome on current polling is a PP/Vox coalition, with PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo installed as a center-right prime minister propped up in the Spanish parliament by Vox. “The center right have already said that they are completely comfortable governing with the far right,” Aitor said. “So they have a really clear path to victory.” Such an outcome would give the far-right a foothold in Spanish politics for the first time since the death of General Franco in 1975.
At this stage, the deck looks stacked against Sánchez. As Aitor set out in today’s Brussels Playbook Capitals newsletter , housing is hardly the Spanish PM’s strongest suit, given he’s been in power since 2018 without addressing affordability concerns. Still, he’d rather fight a campaign on that issue than the multiple crises which have beset his premiership this year, chief among them a series of corruption scandals including one involving his wife.
“There’s debate as to whether or not these are justified cases,” Aitor notes, “but one way or another it’s really dragged him down and made him seem surrounded by sketchy characters.” The far right has also made hay with the migration crisis which enveloped the Spanish enclave of Ceuta this summer, and left Sánchez on the wrong side of popular opinion. “It’s very awkward for a guy who has contrasted himself with Trump by being like, ‘Oh, I’m super pro-immigrant,’” Aitor says. On affordable housing , Sánchez will hope to re-forge the left-wing coalition which held him in power at the last election in 2023, when his socialist party finished in second place but was still able to form a government.
That left-wing grouping has now splintered, but Sánchez will need to galvanize its support if he’s to keep the Spanish right from taking power. “By making housing the issue, he might actually be creating a topic that the far left can coalesce around,” Aitor said. But it’s an uphill struggle for a leader weighed down with eight years’ baggage, and perceived by many in Spain as arrogant and out of touch.
All of Europe will be watching closely. A strong result next month for the Spanish far right would set the scene for a potentially pivotal 2027, as eyes turn to potentially seismic elections in France, Italy and Poland. The continent’s political makeup could look very different this time next year.
FUTURE INTELLIGENCE HACKED OFF: Who’s responsible when AI goes rogue and hacks into privately-held data? It’s a question the world must urgently get to grips with as the threat posed by autonomous cyberattacks grows. In his interview with POLITICO’s new Decoded newsletter and podcast today, OpenAI chief Sam Altman — whose rogue agents famously hacked AI database Hugging Face this summer — called for a new “liability framework” for companies whose models are capable of autonomous hacks.
Altman called the Hugging Face attack “clearly unacceptable,” and said that “if something goes wrong with our models during training, there’s going to be some version of that we need to be responsible for.” Altman expects governments to intervene . “This is the kind of thing that we are hoping our policymakers will all debate,” he said. That debate is starting to happen — but slowly, in piecemeal, and with little clarity on the exact way ahead.
Here in Washington D.C. , Republican Sen. Josh Hawley last week unveiled bipartisan legislation that would set tough new criminal liability rules for AI-led hacks. “Hawley is striking a sharper tone about the risks of the novel technology than what the White House has generally offered,” POLITICO tech reporter John Hendel tells Forecast.
“And he has expressed interest in getting Altman himself to come testify, which could let the two drill down on exactly what the right framework should look like.” Even so — the U.S. Congress has been deadlocked on AI safety (as well as most other issues) for months, and is now in recess until after the midterm elections on Nov. 3. It’s far from clear whether liability legislation has a path forward when members return — or how receptive the White House would be should something get passed.
Donald Trump’s longtime AI guru David Sacks — an AI regulation skeptic — suggested at a recent POLITICO Decoded summit that existing U.S. product liability laws may be sufficient to address the issue, though he added: “I’m open to ideas about what else we should have,” The issue is also being hotly debated in Europe , where last month a group of Brussels lawmakers put forward proposals for a new EU-wide AI Liability Act. They said the bloc’s 2024 AI Act failed to address issues around autonomous hacking, which at the time was still only a theoretical threat. It’s just the latest example of how lawmakers around the world are struggling to keep pace with the astonishing pace of AI development.
In the meantime, don’t be surprised to see Australia taking a lead, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese determined to make tech legislation the legacy issue of his premiership. Australian ministers admitted last month that loopholes in existing Australian laws mean OpenAI held no legal responsibility for an incident this summer when a rogue agent hacked into an Australian government health database. That issue will be back at the forefront later today when a joint parliamentary committee on AI convenes in Sydney.
Key witnesses including OpenAI’s chief strategy officer Jason Kwon , who’s flying in from Silicon Valley for an hour-long grilling on the health data hack. “He will answer questions about what we know, how we responded, what steps we have taken, and how we will do better going forward,” OpenAI has pledged . Aussie lawmakers are still hopping mad at the company’s initially-underwhelming response.
Expect sparks to fly in Sydney later tonight. QUOTE OF THE DAY “[F]irst reports are usually wrong, and Russia has historically not been particularly forthcoming about what actually happened.” —Paul Friedrichs , a retired Air Force major general who led the White House Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy, responding to the limited details released about a lab worker’s death at a Russian institute dedicated to studying plague. HARD POWER: FRANCE’S REAL POWERBROKERS National Rally presidential candidate Marine Le Pen delivers a speech in Paris on Sept. 28, 2026. | Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images Another day of noisy student protests in France will make international headlines tomorrow.
But the bond market vigilantes betting big against France’s economy will be paying closer attention to a quieter, but potentially more significant moment — a long-awaited budget plan from far-right leader Marine Le Pen. You can see why the school protests are grabbing the attention. Several teenagers have already been injured in the mass demonstrations sweeping the country, as pupils and unions attack what they say are appalling conditions in French schools.
Tomorrow will bring the biggest day of national protest so far, even as ministers vow to address a litany of complaints ranging from teacher shortages and class overcrowding to cockroach-infested and badly overheated classrooms. But for French politicos, Le Pen’s press conference in central Paris is the more significant moment. She’s vowed to unveil details of a massive cost-cutting plan designed to bolster her economic credentials ahead of next April’s presidential election.
Skeptical business leaders and investors — unsettled by Le Pen’s perceived free-spending populism — are waiting to be convinced. “Le Pen is betting her economic credibility on this moment, after trying to rebrand herself as a fiscal hawk over the past few weeks,” POLITICO’s chief Europe correspondent, Marion Solletty , tells Forecast. “She’s pledged a €125 billion cost-cutting package over three to five years, and pitched a new golden economic rule akin to the German debt break.” Exactly where Le Pen plans to find such enormous savings has not yet been revealed.
She has vowed to renegotiate France’s contributions to the EU budget, although details remain scarce. “They’re adamant they will basically force Brussels’ hand,” Marion says. “How exactly is unclear.” Given her lead in the opinion polls, the prospect of a Le Pen presidency is becoming less theoretical by the day.
And with France teetering on the edge of a full sovereign debt crisis, expect the market’s judgement on her economic plans to be swift. SOFT POWER: FOR FOX SAKE The revolving door between politics and media is hardly a new phenomenon. But even by historic standards , the close ties between the Trump White House and Fox News are pretty extraordinary.
Trump famously recruited numerous Fox News personalities for his second administration, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth , Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro.
Increasingly his allies are headed in the opposite direction. Fox announced today that one of the best known faces of the administration, recently-departed press secretary Karoline Leavitt , has signed as a contributor to the network. Fox was so eager to secure her services that it even agreed to build a TV studio at her family home in New Hampshire, USA Today reported .
Leavitt joins her White House predecessor Kayleigh McEnany , and Trump’s own daughter-in-law Lara Trump , who both have their own shows on the network. Fox’s influence over the MAGA faithful shows no sign of abating any time soon. See you tomorrow.
TUESDAY’S AGENDA — First day of campaigning in the Spanish general election. — OpenAI bosses face grilling from Australian lawmakers over autonomous hack of government websites. — UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin. — Results expected in Quebec’s parliamentary election, with separatists expected to finish in first place. — Paramount Skydance’s $110 billion merger with Warner Bros Discovery scheduled to close. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at [email protected] . Did someone forward this email to you?
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Source: politico.eu
